Long Island

Conference:	NEC
Expected RPI:	179.0
Current RPI:	179
Expected SOS:	286
Current SOS:	286
Current Record:	20-13
Expected Record:	20-13
Current Conf Record:	15-6
Expected Conf Record:	15-6
Probability of Auto Bid:	100.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	9-8
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	11-3
Current OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC RPI:	286
Expected OOC SOS:	325

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
20-13	179.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Long Island.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-9	Morehead St. (172.0)	OVC	H	74-77	L	0%
11-12	Lafayette (153.0)	Pat	A	98-94	L	0%
11-16	Maryland (73.0)	ACC	A	91-74	L	0%
11-23	Kentucky (56.0)	SEC	A	104-75	L	0%
11-28	Columbia (273.0)	Ivy	H	70-61	W	100%
12-1	Lafayette (153.0)	Pat	H	71-60	W	100%
12-8	Hofstra (325.0)	CAA	H	88-84	W	100%
12-12	Rice (324.0)	CUSA	A	70-97	W	100%
12-16	Manhattan (183.0)	MAAC	H	75-48	W	100%
12-19	St. Peter's (290.0)	MAAC	A	80-67	L	0%
12-22	Seton Hall (138.0)	BE	H	58-89	L	0%
12-29	Lamar (335.0)	Slnd	A	81-80	L	0%
1-3	Sacred Heart (253.0)	NEC	A	77-73	L	0%
1-5	Quinnipiac (191.0)	NEC	A	82-74	L	0%
1-10	Wagner (126.0)	NEC	H	75-86	L	0%
1-12	Mount St. Mary's (121.0)	NEC	H	86-72	W	100%
1-17	Fairleigh Dickinson (299.0)	NEC	A	75-79	W	100%
1-19	Monmouth (282.0)	NEC	H	75-65	W	100%
1-24	St. Francis NY (207.0)	NEC	A	68-78	W	100%
1-26	Bryant (158.0)	NEC	A	78-79	W	100%
1-31	St. Francis PA (322.0)	NEC	H	82-62	W	100%
2-2	Robert Morris (132.0)	NEC	H	57-60	L	0%
2-7	Central Connecticut (200.0)	NEC	A	75-81	W	100%
2-10	St. Francis NY (207.0)	NEC	H	83-75	W	100%
2-14	Monmouth (282.0)	NEC	A	66-80	W	100%
2-16	Fairleigh Dickinson (299.0)	NEC	H	92-67	W	100%
2-21	Mount St. Mary's (121.0)	NEC	A	83-71	L	0%
2-24	Wagner (126.0)	NEC	A	94-92	L	0%
2-28	Sacred Heart (253.0)	NEC	H	70-68	W	100%
3-2	Quinnipiac (191.0)	NEC	H	96-90	W	100%
3-6	Quinnipiac (191.0)	NEC	H	91-83	W	100%
3-9	Wagner (126.0)	NEC	A	82-94	W	100%
3-12	Mount St. Mary's (121.0)	NEC	H	91-70	W	100%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Long Island's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Long Island's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Long Island.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Long Island	NEC	26.49	26.49	61.54	61.54	6.11	6.11
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	5.31	5.31	58.62	58.62	0.92	0.92
Wagner	NEC	5.31	5.31	60.71	60.71	1.14	1.14
Quinnipiac	NEC	5.19	5.19	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	3.93	3.93	42.86	42.86	-0.56	-0.56
Monmouth	NEC	3.88	3.88	34.48	34.48	-1.21	-1.21
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	3.86	3.86	24.14	24.14	-2.00	-2.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	3.77	3.77	29.63	29.63	-1.53	-1.53
Lafayette	Pat	3.33	3.33	54.84	54.84	0.32	0.32
Central Connecticut	NEC	2.48	2.48	44.83	44.83	-0.26	-0.26
Robert Morris	NEC	2.43	2.43	68.75	68.75	0.91	0.91
Bryant	NEC	2.42	2.42	65.52	65.52	0.75	0.75
St. Francis PA	NEC	2.35	2.35	17.86	17.86	-1.51	-1.51
St. Peter's	MAAC	1.68	1.68	27.59	27.59	-0.76	-0.76
Hofstra	CAA	1.66	1.66	20.00	20.00	-1.00	-1.00
Maryland	ACC	1.66	1.66	63.64	63.64	0.45	0.45
Manhattan	MAAC	1.62	1.62	45.16	45.16	-0.16	-0.16
Kentucky	SEC	1.61	1.61	64.52	64.52	0.47	0.47
Morehead St.	OVC	1.61	1.61	40.00	40.00	-0.32	-0.32
Seton Hall	BE	1.54	1.54	43.75	43.75	-0.19	-0.19
Columbia	Ivy	1.54	1.54	40.00	40.00	-0.31	-0.31
Lamar	Slnd	1.52	1.52	6.67	6.67	-1.31	-1.31
Rice	CUSA	1.52	1.52	14.29	14.29	-1.08	-1.08
Lehigh	Pat	0.39	0.39	68.97	68.97	0.15	0.15
Hartford	AE	0.30	0.30	56.67	56.67	0.04	0.04
American	Pat	0.29	0.29	33.33	33.33	-0.10	-0.10
Colgate	Pat	0.27	0.27	34.38	34.38	-0.08	-0.08
Navy	Pat	0.24	0.24	23.33	23.33	-0.13	-0.13
Stony Brook	AE	0.22	0.22	76.67	76.67	0.12	0.12
Holy Cross	Pat	0.22	0.22	40.00	40.00	-0.04	-0.04
Brown	Ivy	0.21	0.21	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
Albany	AE	0.20	0.20	70.59	70.59	0.08	0.08
Army	Pat	0.20	0.20	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.19	0.19	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Syracuse	BE	0.19	0.19	74.29	74.29	0.09	0.09
Bucknell	Pat	0.19	0.19	84.38	84.38	0.13	0.13
Loyola MD	MAAC	0.19	0.19	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Pennsylvania	Ivy	0.18	0.18	29.03	29.03	-0.07	-0.07
Princeton	Ivy	0.18	0.18	59.26	59.26	0.03	0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.17	0.17	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
George Washington	A10	0.17	0.17	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.17	0.17	6.90	6.90	-0.15	-0.15
Rider	MAAC	0.17	0.17	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	0.17	0.17	48.00	48.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Methodist	CUSA	0.15	0.15	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.14	0.14	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	CAA	0.14	0.14	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.14	0.14	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.13	0.13	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Niagara	MAAC	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Rutgers	BE	0.12	0.12	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Notre Dame	BE	0.12	0.12	73.53	73.53	0.06	0.06
Indiana	B10	0.12	0.12	81.82	81.82	0.08	0.08
Hampton	MEAC	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.12	0.12	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Delaware	CAA	0.12	0.12	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Cornell	Ivy	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Harvard	Ivy	0.11	0.11	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
Villanova	BE	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Temple	A10	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.04	0.04
Marshall	CUSA	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Boston University	AE	0.10	0.10	58.62	58.62	0.02	0.02
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Canisius	MAAC	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.10	0.10	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Georgia St.	CAA	0.10	0.10	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.10	0.10	23.33	23.33	-0.05	-0.05
Connecticut	BE	0.10	0.10	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
Maine	AE	0.10	0.10	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Fordham	A10	0.10	0.10	22.58	22.58	-0.05	-0.05
Georgetown	BE	0.09	0.09	80.65	80.65	0.06	0.06
Pittsburgh	BE	0.09	0.09	75.00	75.00	0.05	0.05
Louisville	BE	0.09	0.09	85.29	85.29	0.07	0.07
Duke	ACC	0.09	0.09	84.38	84.38	0.06	0.06
Wake Forest	ACC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.08	0.08	29.63	29.63	-0.03	-0.03
Houston	CUSA	0.08	0.08	60.00	60.00	0.02	0.02
La Salle	A10	0.08	0.08	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Tulane	CUSA	0.08	0.08	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.07	0.07	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.07	0.07	67.86	67.86	0.03	0.03
Santa Clara	WCC	0.07	0.07	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Longwood	BSth	0.07	0.07	19.35	19.35	-0.04	-0.04
Xavier	A10	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Virginia	ACC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Tulsa	CUSA	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Southern Mississippi	CUSA	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Illinois	B10	0.05	0.05	63.64	63.64	0.01	0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.05	0.05	57.69	57.69	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
NC Wilmington	CAA	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	70.37	70.37	0.02	0.02
Oral Roberts	Slnd	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.05	0.05	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.05	85.19	85.19	0.03	0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	37.04	37.04	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.05	0.05	76.47	76.47	0.03	0.03
William & Mary	CAA	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	28.12	28.12	-0.02	-0.02
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
IUPUI	Sum	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	74.19	74.19	0.02	0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
South Florida	BE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.04	0.04	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.04	0.04	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	SC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Central Florida	CUSA	0.03	0.03	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	GWC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
East Carolina	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.85	53.85	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	GWC	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Memphis	CUSA	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
New Orleans	ind	0.03	0.03	18.18	18.18	-0.02	-0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Texas Christian	B12	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	48.28	48.28	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.02	0.02	60.00	60.00	0.00	0.00
Austin Peay	OVC	0.02	0.02	20.69	20.69	-0.01	-0.01
Charlotte	A10	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	SB	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana St.	MVC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
James Madison	CAA	0.02	0.02	58.82	58.82	0.00	0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
North Texas	SB	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Oakland	Sum	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CAA	0.02	0.02	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.02	0.02	28.00	28.00	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Pan American	GWC	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Texas St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.02	0.02	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia	SEC	0.02	0.02	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi	SEC	0.02	0.02	76.47	76.47	0.01	0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.02	0.02	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.02	0.02	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.02	0.02	34.38	34.38	-0.01	-0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.02	0.02	22.58	22.58	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.02	0.02	52.94	52.94	0.00	0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.02	0.02	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Washington	P12	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.02	0.02	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Southern	SC	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.02	0.02	7.14	7.14	-0.02	-0.02
Miami FL	ACC	0.02	0.02	81.82	81.82	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02